Satellite InSAR survey of structurally-controlled land subsidence due to groundwater exploitation in the Aguascalientes Valley, Mexico

To address increasing water demands in expanding cities, many aquifers Mexico are overexploited and deplete. The resulting land subsidence often combines with ground faulting/fracturing damage to infrastructure. This study provides the longest Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) survey ever undertaken for Aguascalientes Valley, aimed constrain its structurally-controlled process induced risk. 275 ERS-1/2 1996–2002, ENVISAT 2003–2010 Sentinel-1 2014–2020 C-band SAR images processed change detection, differential Interferometric (InSAR) Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) methods. notably expanded over last four decades, as revealed by Seasat 1978 L-band SAR, Landsat 1985–2010 Sentinel-2 2020 optical imagery. observed pattern involves alluvial/fluvial deposits within N-S trending graben. Maximum settlement rates −14 cm/year 1996, −10 2000–2010 −12 2015–2020. An acceleration (−0.70 cm/year2) is recorded 2015–2020 close recently developed industrial plants housing districts. Satellite estimates agree in-situ observations, static GPS surveying continuous monitoring data. Rough correlation found piezometric level drop rates, whereas aquifer thickness plays a stronger role process. While these outcomes align existing literature, this InSAR survey: (i) unveils previously unknown E-W deformation affecting two oriented bands valley, up ~ ±3 towards center; (ii) identifies zones of sagging hogging horizontal strain (ε) 0.05–0.1%; (iii) retrieves reaching 6–8 angular distortions (β) 1/500 along Oriente fault; (iv) investigates statistical distribution β across field surveyed faults fissures, marks areas potentially yet-unmapped discontinuities. A new surface faulting risk matrix embedding ε therefore proposed estimate impact on properties population. Given scale-dependency, assessment lower bound percentage urban at state: least 2% were high very (involving ~12,000 ~39,000 inhabitants), but increased 6% (~25,600 properties, ~85,200 inhabitants). evidence evolving spatially temporally highlights need updating hazard information.